WASHINGTON — A proposal by President Donald Trump to give $5,000 to each American adult if Republicans retain control of the U.S. House and Senate in November would “explode” the national deficit and worsen inflation, according to an analysis issued Thursday by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The committee, whose board includes economists, bankers and former elected and administration officials from both political parties, estimates Trump’s plan would cost roughly $1.2 trillion.
“This proposal is fiscally dangerous, economically backwards, and fundamentally unserious,” Maya MacGuineas, the committee’s president, said in a statement. “It’s hard to understand how anyone could look at our current fiscal and economic situation and think we need to borrow another $1.2 trillion to send everyone cash.”
Trump announced the “Trump dividend” Wednesday night during the latter half of a nearly two-hour keynote speech at the Republican National Committee’s first midterm convention.
Trump told attendees at the political gathering in Dallas, Texas, that his “only caveat” is that Americans spend the money in the United States.
“We don’t want you going to Canada to spend the money,” he said during the livestreamed speech.
Ultimately, Congress would need to appropriate the funds.
Debt, deficits, inflation
MacGuineas pointed out in her statement that the nation’s debt “is now as large as our entire economy, deficits are running $2 trillion per year, inflation is about 3.5%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%.”
“This half-baked political scheme would make this all worse – exploding the deficit, ginning up inflation, and further driving up the cost of borrowing throughout the economy.”
The national debt sits at $40 trillion to date, which breaks down to $117,446 per taxpayer, according to a tracker by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.
Vice President JD Vance said on Fox News following Trump’s speech that the dividend would be funded by tariff revenue.
“What the president’s just saying is … if you keep us in power and allow us to continue to do these things, then you’re going to share in some of the benefit of this incredible wealth that we’re creating in the United States of America,” he said to Fox News host Bret Baier.
But the expected revenue generated by Trump’s executive tariffs would only cover one-tenth of the cost of sending $5,000 to each American adult, according to an analysis Thursday from the Tax Foundation.
The organization that identifies itself as pro-economic growth, and generally opposes tax increases, estimates Trump’s new tariffs will bring in roughly $124.9 billion in 2027.
“A deficit-financed dividend payment of this scale would signal to markets that the US is not serious about getting its fiscal house in order. It would risk further rises in interest rates, add to inflationary pressures, and worsen the very problems that are trying to be ‘solved’ by the proposal,” said Erica York, a senior economist with the Tax Foundation, in a written statement. The organization opposes Trump’s tariff policies.
Tariff promises
This is not Trump’s first time promising to send what he describes as dividends to Americans — though none of the payments materialized.
The president said in November 2025 he would send $2,000 to Americans from tariff revenue that he falsely said would reach “trillions” of dollars.
Trump’s emergency tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court in February, and the government is in the process of refunding nearly $170 billion in illegal import taxes.
Trump and then-special government employee and billionaire Elon Musk said in March 2025 they would send $5,000 refund checks to Americans as a result of savings created by the project titled the Department of Government Oversight. The ultrawealthy tech mogul went public with his plan without consultation from Congress, which controls the nation’s proverbial purse strings.
In spring of 2020, Trump’s name appeared on $1,200 stimulus checks for individuals, $2,400 for married couples, sent out as part of a $2.2 trillion initial COVID-19 relief package approved by Congress.
