By Shirleen Guerra | The Center Square
(The Center Square) – After a stretch of political whiplash in Virginia filled with leaked texts, televised debates, and more finger-pointing than a group project gone wrong, one of the first new polls is finally out.
The Trafalgar Group survey, conducted Oct. 13-15 among 1,039 likely voters, shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger holding a narrow lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, 47.5% to 45.3%. About 6% of voters said they are still undecided, which at this point might just mean tired.
In the lieutenant governor race, Sen. Ghazala Hashmi and John Reid are locked in a statistical tie at 46.2% to 46.1%, with nearly 8% undecided.
The attorney general contest remains the most volatile of the three. Republican incumbent Jason Miyares leads Democrat Jay Jones, 49.5% to 44.6%, with around 6% of voters still weighing their options after Jones’ leaked text messages made the rounds earlier this month.
The poll’s margin of error was 2.9% with a 95% confidence level. Respondents were 41% Democrat, 40% Republican, and 18% independent.
Spanberger’s campaign got a boost when former President Barack Obama endorsed her, calling on Virginians to turn out for the Nov. 4 election.
With just a few weeks left, this is one of the first reality checks on where voters stand after the governor’s debate, the Jones drama, and a nonstop campaign season that does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon.