Fertilizer prices have risen 40% percent in recent weeks, industry experts say, straining growers’ already-tight profit margins.
Virginia farms are feeling the ripple effects from the uncertainty over the Iran War and the status of the Strait of Hormuz, a major international shipping artery.
As local farmers plant corn and other crops, they’re spreading their first rounds of fertilizer, which has seen prices skyrocket an estimated 40% in recent weeks, according to the Virginia Grain Producers Association.
With the conflict and peace talks unsettled, farmers fear the impact could carry over into the 2027 planting season.
The Strait’s closure is limiting commerce and driving up the cost of fuel and the transport of fertilizer. The National Corn Growers Association reported last week that about a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz – making it a critical choke point.
“Virginia farmers were sitting on the edge of their seats wondering what’s gonna happen. The supply chain is a very real thing,” said Mike Ellerbrock, a professor of agricultural economics at the University of Virginia.
Fertilizer production relies on fossil fuels. Many farmers had already secured their fertilizer caches before this planting season, but about a quarter are still purchasing it. Virginia hosts an estimated 305,000 acres of corn, 600,000 acres of soybeans, and 60,000 acres of wheat.
“Since the war began, we’re seeing producers report increases of anywhere from $100 to $300 per ton increase,” Taylor Hubbard with the Virginia Grain Producers Association said. “We had one member that reported a $45 per acre increase for pre-plant fertilizer application.”
This is not the first time that farmers have seen military conflict hit fertilizer prices in recent years. When the Ukraine war kicked off, the price of fertilizer also shot up. But at that time bushels of corn were going for about $7 a bushel; now that has dropped to $4.50.
“So if you take a $700 average, producers need 165 bushels to the acre of corn to break even,” Hubbard said. “The average yield for corn is 170 bushels per acre. So they’re not making a ton of money right now. So an increase of $50 per acre is actually substantial.”
The cost of corn bushels has been decreasing over the last few years and is not tied to the conflict. Still, the new war adds another layer of challenges to an already-strained industry.
“Farmers cannot control the price of fertilizer, they can’t control the price of equipment,” Hubbard said. “They can’t control any other input costs and they also cannot control the output costs that’s set by what the folks who are buying their commodities are willing to pay them.”
The National Corn Growers Association conducted a survey of over 1000 farmers from across the country to see if they would be reducing the amount of fertilizer they use this year due to cost jumps.
Half of those who responded said they are not concerned about their 2026 crop yield, while the other half cited worries over fertilizer costs and availability, on top of drought concerns in some regions of the country. Some farmers are even going so far as reducing the amount of fertilizer they will be spreading on their crops – which could impact the harvest yield in the fall.
“If they’re not able to use what they think will generate the highest yield, then I think you will see some pushback on the yields this year,” Hubbard said.
The conflict with Iran is “much bigger than agriculture,” Ellerbrock explained.
“Think of how many industries are petroleum based. Anything made with rubber. How much plastics are created using fossil fuels? The ramifications of an increase in fossil fuel prices impacts the entire economy.”
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday that he is monitoring the jump in fertilizer prices and would not allow for price gouging to occur, though it’s unclear what methods he would use to control it.
Trump also authorized the Environmental Protection Agency to allow for the sale of E15 gas during the summer months, when it is usually barred due to emissions concerns, to attempt to bring down gas prices. This also could benefit corn growers who are looking to sell their product.
There is an effort to make the sale of E15 permanently permissible year-round, but it is tied up in congressional negotiations.