By Shirleen Guerra | The Center Square
(The Center Square) – A new economic report estimates that repealing Virginia’s right-to-work law could lower the state’s economic output by tens of billions of dollars over the next decade.
The report, prepared by Mangum Economics and commissioned by the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, projects that Virginia’s gross state product would be about $36.8 billion lower over 10 years if the law were repealed. It also estimates personal income would decline by $25.8 billion, with private-sector employment reduced by more than 180,000 jobs during that period.
The report compares long-term economic trends in right-to-work states and states without such laws, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It estimates Virginia would follow economic patterns seen in non–right-to-work states if the law were repealed.
According to the report, a repeal of the law could also slow business formation, with nearly 30,000 fewer new private establishments projected over a decade. Average annual wages are estimated to be more than $3,000 lower per worker, similar to manufacturing, with larger impacts projected in construction.
The study also points to population trends, noting that right-to-work states have experienced sustained net in-migration over the past decade, while non–right-to-work states have seen net population losses.
As previously reported by The Center Square, legislation to repeal Virginia’s right-to-work law was filed ahead of the 2026 General Assembly session.
Virginia’s right-to-work law bars employers from requiring union membership as a condition of employment, and Senate Bill 32 would repeal those right-to-work provisions from the Code of Virginia.
Sen. Jennifer Carroll Foy, who introduced the bill, has previously said the proposal is intended to lower costs for Virginia families and strengthen worker protections.
Business groups, including the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, point to the report’s findings as evidence that the change could reduce job opportunities and weaken wage growth.
“For decades, right-to-work has helped make Virginia a place where businesses want to invest and people want to work,” said Keith Martin, interim president and CEO of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, in a statement.
Virginia enacted its right-to-work law in 1947 and is one of 26 states with similar laws. Michigan is the only state to have recently repealed a right-to-work law, with the change taking effect in 2024, according to the analysis.