By Morgan Sweeney | The Center Square
(The Center Square) – Former vice president and 2024 presidential candidate Kamala Harris leads Democratic contenders for 2028, according to a new poll.
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights, surveyed 2,565 registered voters from Oct. 2-6, 2025, via opt-in online panel and text-to-web cell phone messages. Only those who identified as Democrat (948 of those surveyed) or Independent (199) were asked to choose who to among top Democratic contenders.
Of the eight Democratic names listed in the poll, Harris had the support of 33% of Democrats and 27% of Independents surveyed. California Gov. Gavin Newsom trailed with 13% support among Democrats and 3% among Independents. Seventeen percent of those surveyed indicated they weren’t sure who they’d pick if a Democratic primary were held that day.
New York U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez placed a distant third, netting 8% of both Democratic and Independent support, and former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg followed with 7% among both groups.
Harris cleanly swept nearly all demographic groups surveyed, polling strongest among Black, Southern and young voters. She captured 54% of Black support, 40% support of those who live in the South, 44% of those ages 18 to 29, and 42% of those ages 30 to 44. She was also twice as popular as Newsom with women and people with a household income under $50,000 (36% to his 18%).
Newsom managed to capture two demographics from Harris: Americans who live in the West and those ages 65 and older. Newsom snagged 30% support in the West to Harris’ 25%, and 29% support from older Americans to Harris’ 18%. He and the former vice president were neck-and-neck among white and college-educated respondents and those with a household income of at least $100,000, with Newsom trailing by just one or two percentage points.
Ocasio-Cortez was the second-most popular choice among 18- to 29-year-olds, securing 15% support to Newsom’s 12%.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker tied for fifth among the Democrats listed, each earning 4% support. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer followed with 3% and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, with 1%.
The Center Square partnered with independent market research firm Noble Predictive Insights to survey Democratic and Independent voters from Oct. 2-6 through online and SMS survey.