President Donald Trump is scheduled to kick off a month-long blitz of campaign stops with a Thursday rally in deep-red Oklahoma before heading to other states with strong Republican leanings.
The first events in the closing stretch of the midterm election campaign suggest his strength with swing voters is limited, as even some Republican candidates seek distance, political analysts said.
Trump’s low approval ratings amid growing consumer costs, spiraling gas prices and an unpopular war in Iran have put U.S. Senate races in typically GOP-leaning states like Alaska and Iowa in play.
After the Oklahoma rally, the president will travel to Alabama and Ohio through the weekend. On Monday, he will be in Nebraska.
He has vowed he would make another stop in Texas soon as part of 32 days of travel before the Nov. 3 elections that will determine control of Congress.
Vice President JD Vance also rallied voters in Texas on Wednesday before a planned event in Florida on Thursday.
The red-state itinerary makes it appear Trump will be used to rally the base, rather than attempt to win over voters who switch preferences from one election to another, said Chandler James, a political science professor at the University of Oregon.
“These are places where Trump has the most support that he’s retained, and probably has the most influence,” he said. “Trump still has a lot of sway within the Republican Party, and he has a pretty sizable political base, many of whom don’t traditionally show up for elections besides when Trump is on the ballot.”
In more traditionally contested states, such as North Carolina, Michigan or New Hampshire, the median voter may be further to the left and have a lower opinion of Trump, James said.
“He can still help, but he has to do so in different ways,” Christopher Stout, a political science professor at Oregon State University, said. “Going to places where you might be able to recruit supporters rather than places where it’d be easy for Democrats to say, ‘Look how closely this candidate is tied to a president whose popularity is pretty low.’”
Trump’s approval rating was hovering Wednesday near 37%, with 60% disapproving, according to The New York Times polling average.
‘They all want me’
Trump told reporters Tuesday he was strongly in demand for campaign appearances.
“I’m one person. They all want me to go campaign,” he said. “In about two days, I’m starting a literally 32-day tour. … I’m going to Texas. I’m going to Ohio. I’m going to all different places.”
Candidates from a president’s party typically face strong headwinds in midterm elections, a phenomenon that is likely to be especially true this year as Trump faces historically low approval ratings, James said.
Republicans could minimize that disadvantage, while still appealing to Trump’s supporters, by keeping him focused on redder states and districts.
The base-focused strategy could also help recruit volunteers who can work across state lines or raise money, Stout said.
Texting and other technology allows volunteers to be active remotely, meaning that volunteers fired up in Oklahoma or Alabama could be helping mobilize Republican voters in Georgia or Iowa.
No longer a change agent
But there are indications Trump’s support is cracking even in red areas.
U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Republican from Florida, released a campaign ad in September in which she said Trump’s immigration policy had “gone too far.”
Iowa U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, a Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, criticized the Iran war in a social media post last week.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter in late September moved Salazar’s race to “lean Republican,” a shift signaling a more competitive race. The open Senate seat in Iowa is rated as a tossup, although the state’s entire congressional delegation is currently Republican.
Even Ken Paxton, the far-right Texas attorney general who is running for U.S. Senate, privately groused that Trump’s two-night midterm convention in his state hurt his polling in the close race against Democrat James Talarico, according to leaked audio obtained by The New York Times.
Paxton, a polarizing figure who defeated the more moderate incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary this year, also faces a tossup race against Talarico, even though the last Democrat to win a Senate seat in the reliably Republican state resigned to run for vice president in 1988.
Part of the challenge for Republicans is that swing voters in recent elections are looking for change, Stout said. That has helped Trump in the elections he ran while not in office, but that advantage has evaporated.
“A lot of those swing voters, many of them just want change,” Stout said. “They want things to be different. So in 2016 and in 2024, he represented that change. In 2026, he represents the status quo. And so if people want change, he’s not the person you want there.”